On a roll: High-performing banks forecast frequently

Strong performance starts with strong planning, and strong planning isn’t a one-and-done task—it’s an ongoing process. A rolling forecast allows banks to regularly update projections and adjust assumptions to stay aligned with strategic goals. Unlike inflexible static budgets that quickly become outdated, rolling forecasts provide a fluid view of performance, helping bankers make informed decisions and lead their teams with data-driven clarity.

What is a rolling forecast?

A rolling forecast, according to the Corporate Finance Institute, is a financial planning model that continuously projects future performance based on historical data and updated assumptions. Unlike a static budget set for a fixed period (e.g., January to December), a rolling forecast shifts forward over time, dropping the oldest month and adding a new one as each month passes. Here’s an example of what a rolling forecast looks like in comparison to a full-year forecast:

This flexible forecasting model helps banks stay responsive to changes, making it easier to manage risk and pursue opportunities.

Among Deluxe clients using Banker’s Dashboard, the ones leveraging rolling forecasts are consistently the highest performing institutions, according to internal data. They have the information they need to adapt to changing conditions, helping them manage risk exposure. Bankers who only rely on annual forecasting can also achieve good results, but with less consistency.

Forecasting intervals can vary. Some experts recommend projecting four to eight quarters beyond the current quarter. Others suggest monthly forecasts that look 12 months ahead. Whatever the interval, consistency is key, as forecasting regularly helps ensure ongoing alignment with your strategic goals.

How to automate rolling forecasts

With a cloud-based system like Banker’s Dashboard, performance-focused bankers already have the data and analytics needed to automate a rolling forecast. As you create forecasts, Banker’s Dashboard helps analyze:

• Annual budget versus actual results (variances to budget)
• Balance sheet (mix of loans and deposits)
• Income statement (interest income and interest expense)
• Loan pipeline (its overall health and timing of loan closures)
• Annual budget versus forecast (showing why they are different)

From here, the Banker’s Dashboard forecasting tools can be used to adjust assumptions based on current performance and future expectations.

Preparing rolling forecasts forces management to look forward constantly and to be responsive to the dynamic world financial institutions work in. With rolling forecasts, management can provide more up-to-date targets for their employees, helping ensure that performance evolves when strategies are revised based on current conditions.

Four benefits of rolling forecasts

Rolling forecasts offer more than just flexibility. Here are a few key reasons why high-performing banks are making rolling forecasts part of their core strategy:

1. Helps improve accuracy

The performance goals set in your budget were based on assumptions made months ago. If your business environment has changed (e.g. interest rate movement, competition, branch resizing, lending boom), then your assumptions are likely outdated. The practice of using a rolling forecast improves the accuracy of your financial planning by keeping you aligned with changes in the business environment.

2. Acts like an alarm system

If you’re straying from your original budget and forecast, the rolling forecast process helps to alert you. Your loan pipeline may be weaker than expected, or too many deposits are moving to banks with higher rates. You’ll be able to account for this in your next forecast, make the CEO and board aware, and begin to formulate a strategy to get back on track.

3. Helps identify untapped opportunities

Perhaps the business environment has changed in your favor since your last forecast. Using a forecasting model, adjust your assumptions and see how your forecast would be affected if you made strategic changes. For example, you might find that deposits are up allowing you to sufficiently fund more of your loans without buying funds. The sooner you act on profit opportunities, the greater the return could be.

4. Supports the Performance Management Cycle

CFOs are expected to help drive profitable growth. To do so, they need access to up-to-date performance information. Consistently high-performing banks are intentional about performance management, following a cycle that relies on frequent forecasting to drive strategy and future performance with the goal of optimizing value. Actionable steps in this cycle include:

• Strategize: Define your bank’s strategic priorities, such as growing core deposits, increasing net interest margin or improving branch efficiency. Use data to assess opportunities and develop realistic implementation plans that align with your institution’s capabilities and market position.
• Forecast: Translate strategy into financial projections. A rolling forecast enables your team to model how specific decisions, like changing loan pricing or expanding lending capacity, will impact overall performance. Forecasting also helps identify risks and spot gaps before they become problems.
• Execute: Put your plans into action across the organization. Clear communication, goal alignment and accountability are critical. Banker’s Dashboard helps by providing visibility into performance metrics, helping teams better understand expectations so they can take timely action to hit targets.
• Measure: Track progress using consistent metrics tied to your forecast. Analyze what’s working, where adjustments are needed and how your execution aligns with strategic goals. Performance data from helps empower leadership to refine strategy and improve results over time.

For bankers focused on growth and agility, adopting a rolling forecast can be a performance advantage. With tools like Banker’s Dashboard, forecasting becomes a living, breathing process backed by real-time data and insights, resulting in better alignment, faster course correction and stronger outcomes across the board. Whether you're looking to boost accuracy, uncover opportunity or empower your team with up-to-date performance goals, a rolling forecast can help your institution lead, not just react.